Project · Funded project
Futureproof
Pioneering a new field of weather-health prediction science to enhance resilience of NHS emergency care for future changes in extreme weather and climate.
- Funded by
- UKRI Future Leaders Fellowships
- PI
Eunice Lo- Collaborators
Vikki Thompson- Duration
- Jan 2027 – present
Summary
Heatwaves, cold snaps and storms are major threats to UK health, yet there is a knowledge gap in predicting their impacts on health service demand.
Extreme weather can make people ill, worsen symptoms, increase injuries, disrupt service delivery, and cause preventable deaths . These pressures add strain on an NHS that is already operating above safety limits. With a remit in providing free healthcare, the NHS is not funded for critical weather-related research. Meanwhile, the UK Met Office and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) are world-leading in weather-health alerting. However, their focus remains on forecasting the weather and warning the public and healthcare sector about it, without forecasting the health impacts. The need for a new generation of weather-health prediction capability is clear and urgent.
Futureproof will develop a national capability to forecast demand for emergency health services driven by heat, cold, and storms.
These forecasts will enable NHS leaders to mobilise staff and resources before extreme weather events, increasing efficiency, reducing costs, preventing illness, and saving lives. Furthermore, we will utilise state-of-the-art climate science techniques to quantify the worst plausible emergency care impacts of extreme weather in today’s climate, providing new insights to future-proof the NHS against all possibilities. We will project how these impacts could change through to the end of this century, under different climate change and socioeconomic development scenarios. This research spans near-term operational timescales to long-term planning timescales. By co-designing adaptation strategies with policy partners, these will transform how the NHS prepares for weather-related shocks and climate risks.
The UK will become the global gold standard of climate-resilient healthcare.
Partners
- UK Met Office
- Cabinet Office
- NHS
- UK Health Security Agency
- Public Health Scotland
- Public Health Wales
Research themesExtreme Weather & Health